The COVID19 Tsunami is Coming Do We Have Enough Hospital Beds and Ventilators?
The COVID19 Tsunami is Coming Do We Have Enough Hospital Beds and Ventilators?
We are 17 days from the peak. Excess demand for hospital beds and intensive care unit beds will peak in the U.S. in the second week of April based on the following Study by health data
About a third of states, including New York, will hit peak capacity in the first half of April. “Demand for health services rapidly increases in the last week of March and first 2 weeks of April and then slowly declines through the rest of April and May, with demand continuing well into June,”
The Question: Assuming social distancing measures are maintained, what are the forecasted gaps in available health service resources and number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic for each state in the United States?
Conclusion: Even with social distancing measures enacted and sustained, the peak demand for hospital services due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely going to exceed capacity substantially.
Stay Home! Wash Your Hands! Bend the Curve so this scenario is avoided!!
At the peak of COVID-19, The researchers predict a shortage (demand will exceed existing hospital beds and ventilators) by the following at the peek:
- 64,175 total hospital beds (Shortage)
- 17,309 ICU beds (Shortage)
- 18,767 ventilator (shortage)
There will be an estimated 81,114 deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 over the next four months, and there will be more than 2,300 deaths daily by the second week of April.
GM was ordered to manufacture ventilators yesterday. Will they be delivered in time to close the gap??
Stay Home! Wash Your Hands! Bend the Curve so the above scenario is avoided!!
We are here to Help. We are offering free coaching to support hospitals and providers through this difficult time.
Mo Kasti
CEO, CTI leadership
Dedicated to help you through COVID19 and beyond.
Sources: http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths
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